Africa in the Global Disorder of Trumpism

Africa is not a homogeneous entity. Unlike the United States or China, it does not have a unified political power capable of defending a common interest. Its cultural, economic, and political diversity presents both a complexity and a competitive advantage in globalization.

Africa is at the center of 21st-century challenges, particularly in natural resources and energy transition.

That is why many global powers (China, the United States, Russia, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc.) are courting the continent. The iPhone manufacturing process illustrates global interdependence and Africa’s role within it: the product’s R&D is carried out in the U.S., assembly and manufacturing happen in China, and raw material sourcing (coltan and cobalt, essential for modern technologies) occurs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This model highlights Africa’s crucial role as a supplier of strategic resources.

A World Dominated by Conquest and Expansion

We live in a world marked by territorial conquest, where major powers annex weaker nations to satisfy their thirst for power and seize their mineral resources. Today, three factors define the power of emerging neo-empires:

1. Population size (for labor and talent).
2. Market size (for production and capital consumption).
3. Military strength (for defense and territorial expansion).

Several examples illustrate this dynamic: Putin’s Russia has annexed parts of Ukraine; Xi’s China considers annexing Taiwan; Trump’s United States has expressed intentions to integrate Canada and Greenland into its sphere of influence; and the European Union continues expanding eastward.

These conquests and annexations take different forms — political, economic, or military. This trend suggests that we are moving toward a world dominated by federations of states rather than unitary states. In this context, unitary states risk being marginalized and weakened, as their political structures no longer align with current geopolitical realities. The European Union, for example, is fragile today because its political organization is no longer adapted to global power dynamics, just as is the case with the African Union (AU). To play a strategic role in this evolving world, Africa must adopt a federalist approach.

Why Should Africa Adopt a Federal Approach?

With a population of 1.5 billion today (expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050), a market valued at $2.9 trillion (projected to reach $10 trillion by 2050), and abundant mineral resources, Africa holds immense potential. Key figures include: 65% of the world’s arable land needed for future smart agriculture is in Africa. 40% of resources essential for the global energy transition come from Africa. Despite a challenging global economic environment, 15 African countries recorded over 5% growth in 2024. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), Africa’s real GDP growth is projected to reach 3.8% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025, surpassing the global average of 2.9% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. Africa remains the second-fastest growing region in the world after Asia.

Despite these advantages, Africa cannot play a strategic role without adopting a federal approach. The leaders must speak with one voice on the international stage. The continent must be united to become an economic and political powerhouse. Last but not less, Africa must ensure its own defense against both internal threats (terrorism) and external threats (economic and political interference).The lack of unity exposes Africa to internal divisions exploited by foreign powers, making it vulnerable to strategies of domination.

The First key Factor: Toward a New Dynamic of Federalism in Africa? (Case Study)

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — formed by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso — is a recent example of regional cooperation aimed at strengthening political and security autonomy. This alliance demonstrates a desire to break away from dependency on former colonial powers and establish a self-sufficient defense and economic framework aligned with African interests. This alliance could serve as a blueprint for a broader federal model across Africa, integrating the security aspect, through which the development of a joint military force to effectively combat regional threats. The economy, by facilitating trade, capital mobility, and workforce integration. And laste but not least, the Politics aspect, by creating shared governance structures to defend African interests globally.

If this regional federalism model succeeds, it could inspire other African economic and political blocs to follow the same path.

The Second Key Factor: Industrializing the Continent

Africa cannot carry weight on the global stage without a robust industrialization strategy. Today, the continent remains largely an exporter of raw materials, while real global wealth is derived from transformation and technological innovation. The three strategic pillars for Africa’s industrialization can be defined by developing local industries to process raw materials domestically and create added value. By increasing Investment massively in education and technical training to cultivate a skilled workforce. By creating an attractive regulatory framework to encourage investment and curb capital flight. If Africa aims to position itself as a key player in the new world order, it must transition from an extractive economy to one based on transformation and innovation.

Conclusion

Africa is a land of opportunity not only for foreign investors but also for its own entrepreneurs. Unlike past decades, when African wealth was primarily tied to politics, the rise of entrepreneurship is reshaping the landscape.

The 21st century could belong to Africa, but only if it:

1. Unites under a common vision and adopts a federal approach.
2. Defends its economic and geopolitical interests on the global stage.
3. Industrializes its economies to break free from raw material dependency.
4. Secures its territories from internal and external threats.

As Europe and the United States face existential crises, can Africa capitalize on this global chaos to establish itself as a pivotal player in the emerging world order?

• This blog post is published together with the post The Transatlantic Rift in the Global Disorder of Trumpism.

The Authors

• Bintu Zahara Sakor is a Doctoral Researcher at PRIO
• Vamo Soko is a Geopolitics Analyst and Consultant at Sackson Consultant Group focusing on Africa. He has a Master’s degree in Political Science and International Development from University of Paris – Sorbonne. He also holds a Business Administration and Management degree from INSEAD

Sources

• Vamo Soko and Bintu Zahara Sakor – Russia and China Ambiguity Alliance in Africa (Posted September 17, 2022)
• Vamo Soko and Bintu Zahara Sakor – The Ukraine Crisis and Its Impact on Africa’s Geopolitics: What Do We Know So Far? ( Posted September 7, 2022)
• Gebeye, Berihun Adugna**.** “Federal Theory and Federalism in Africa.” Verfassung Und Recht in Übersee / Law and Politics in Africa, Asia and Latin America 53, no. 2 (2020): 95–115
• Hansrod, Zeenat. “New Sahel Confederation Challenges Regional Order as ECOWAS Seeks Dialogue.” RFI, July 9, 2024
• Kester Kenn Klomegah – Alliance of Sahel States Stepping Forward With Common Economic and Security Aspirations
• The “African Economic Outlook 2024” report, published by the African Development Bank (AfDB), projects a resilient African economy with growth stabilizing at 4.0% in 2024-25, despite global challenges, and highlights the need for policy reforms to address structural issues and drive sustained growth
• World Bank (2024). Transforming African Development. World Bank, Washington, DC