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Displaying 211 blog posts in series Security
January 2025
Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion
The Russian offensive in Donbas has slowed in the last few weeks to a crawl, and in the Kursk oblast, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to expel the Ukrainian forces remains unfulfilled. This deadlock, in which both sides suffer heavy casualties, could have created a favorable situation for opening peace ...
This Is What Norwegians Think About Emergency Alerts on Mobile Phones
The mobile phone has become an indispensable part of our daily lives. We carry it with us everywhere, and it’s a crisis when it’s lost. Now it has also taken on a new role: alerting us to emergencies. On Wednesday, January 8, emergency alerts on mobile phones were tested across ...
Russian Counter-Offensive in the International Arena Has Lost Momentum
One of the key goals for 2024 that President Vladimir Putin had apparently set at the end of the second year of the Ukraine war was to execute a sustained foreign policy counter-offensive to reduce Russia’s international isolation to irrelevance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tries to claim success in achieving ...
November 2024
Putin’s ‘Three Escalations’ Affect Prospect of Peace in Ukraine
Russia’s strategy in executing its aggressive war against Ukraine, passing the 1,000-day mark last week, puts the country’s economy, society, and armed forces under enormous pressure that Moscow’s militaristic propaganda cannot quite cover. As Russia’s war in Ukraine passes the 1,000-day mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy has turned to ...
Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections
The Kremlin had confidently expected confusion and turmoil following the US presidential election. Instead, a definite outcome and the commitment to a smooth transition of power are set to shape the US political environment for the next couple of months. The significant majority of Russians preferred Donald Trump as the ...
Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil
The US presidential election, which has been dominating the global news, will come to its natural culmination on November 5, even if the outcome remains uncertain for many more days. Even in Russia, where war and inflation are major concerns, official sources report that more than 60 percent of adults ...
September 2024
Spectre of Escalation Over the Ukraine War
The first striking sentence of the Communist Manifesto issued in 1848 – A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of communism – has long become a historical anecdote. Even the leftist fringe cherishes no illusions about the unity of the proletariat. A different spectre, however, is looming over Europe – the ...
Moscow Takes the Measure of Western Vacillations
Since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the US-led Western coalition has demonstrated remarkable determination in supporting Kyiv. Yet, every practical step in providing military support to defiant Ukraine has involved protracted deliberations (Kuzio, “Crimea: Where Russia’s War Started and Where Ukraine Will Win,” July 8). Moscow has sought to exploit and ...
Putin Cannot Escape War in Ukraine Amid Travels to Far East
Russia’s ninth annual Eastern Economic Forum was held last week on September 3–6 in Vladivostok. It was intended to promote Moscow’s commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, but instead exposed the shortcomings of this ambition. The Kremlin is not only demanding the redeployment of all combat-capable Russian ...
Putin Puts Forth Resolute Indifference to Kursk Debacle
The impact of Ukraine’s August 6 offensive operation into Kursk oblast remains an open strategic question following four weeks of increasingly intense and fluid fighting (see EDM, August 14, 15). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first reaction to this incursion was clearly misinformed by intelligence assessments portraying it as just another tactical raid. ...
July 2024
Moscow Seeks to Drive ‘Peace’ Wedge into Trans-Atlantic Unity
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not demonstrated any discernible change over the last few weeks in his maximalist stance on how to end his war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, many other governments and organizations continue to propose ideas and initiatives for how to end this devastating conflict, though not all of ...
Russia Seeks to Maintain Battlefield Initiative on Eve of NATO Summit
The ever-changing battlefield dynamics of Moscow’s war against Ukraine have made it impossible for predictions to be accurately tied to the political calendar. This unpredictability is particularly acute in the lead-up to one of the most critical events of 2024 — the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington ...
May 2024
Week of Ceremonies Marks Wobbly Start for Putin’s New Presidential Term
The Christian Orthodox Easter service in Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral on May 5 began a week of pompous performances for Russian President Vladimir Putin (Vedomosti, May 5). It continued with his inauguration ceremony on May 7, followed by a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Council (EEC) the next day ...
Pandemic Aftermath: Reflecting on the Value and Compensation of Essential Workers
After the first confirmation of a COVID case in Norway in late February 2020, the Norwegian government found itself in a difficult situation where the prevention of the virus was urgent, while the functioning of public institutions was necessary. Therefore, the Norwegian government categorized certain workers as especially important or ...
War of Attrition Perturbs Putin’s Elites
Last week was full of shocks for Moscow. The United States finally approved $61 billion of aid to Ukraine, the European Parliament passed a resolution rejecting the legitimacy of Russia’s March presidential elections, and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of bribery. The last ...
April 2024
The Black Sea Region Endures Beyond the Theater of War
Many strategic surprises have come from the combat operations on the Black Sea theatre in the last 25 months, and they keep coming as the long Russo-Ukrainian war continues to evolve, while the prospect of peace is barely visible through its fog. In the domain of politics, one surprise is ...
Multi-Prong Peace Offensive Pushes Putin Into Corner
Against all strategic rationale, Russian troops keep pushing Ukrainian defenses beyond Avdiivka and Bakhmut, paying a heavy price in casualties for every inch gained. The primary reason for these self-destructive attacks is to maintain the initiative necessary to prove Russia’s upper hand in the “long war.” This illusion of control ...
NATO’s New Activity Makes Russia Anxious and Angry
Every Russian stereotype about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been disproven by the alliance’s surge of activity in its 75th year. Moscow portrays NATO as an aggressive and indecisive institution, rigidly controlled by the United States, and disunited. As NATO takes steps to increase its solidarity, Russian propagandists ...
The AI Dilemma: Can Artificial Images of War and Suffering Stir Empathy?
Maria Gabrielsen Jumbert explores the pitfalls and potentials of the use of AI to provide windows into humanitarian crises and human rights abuses. AI-generated images have already been used by charities and human rights organizations to illustrate mass suffering and abuse. A lot is potentially at stake as we become ...
Terrorism Undercuts Putin’s Political Agenda
The shock from the March 22 terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall is continuing to generate angst and confusion throughout Russian society while failing to inspire unity. The Russian population may have grown accustomed to the perpetual shocks caused by the war in Ukraine, but the people are unprepared for ...
March 2024
Post-“Election” Russia Sinks Deeper into War Quagmire
The official results from last week’s Russian presidential election were precisely what the Kremlin ordered, but they have hardly brought the incumbent Vladimir Putin much satisfaction. Falsifications in the results were so blatant that Putin’s desire to prove overwhelming public support for the continuation of his autocratic rule has remained ...
Russian Unity and Western Discord Converge in Putin’s Imagination
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federal Assembly last Thursday was grander in length and style than his usual domineering performances. He did not attempt to persuade the audience of loyal bureaucrats that victory in Ukraine is near. The Kremlin’s war strategy relies on the ideas that Russian ...
February 2024
Russia’s Post-Putin Future Becomes Darker
This year’s Munich Security Conference recently took place on February 16 but was soon overshadowed by other events, which is becoming a tradition for the annual conference. In early February 2022, most high-level participants did not believe a Russian attack on Ukraine was imminent. In 2023, many expected decisive success ...
Russian Economy Feels Bite of Attrition
On February 1, the European Council unanimously approved the 50 billion euro aid package to Ukraine. Although this package will not alter the course of the battles for Avdiivka or Kupyansk as it does not include funding for armor or ammunition, it will deliver a boost to Ukraine’s struggling economy. ...
Five Shifts in the Balance of War in Ukraine’s Favour
At the start of 2024, the deadlocked European war reached the balance point where Russia was at the peak performance, while Ukraine arrived at the dangerous minimum of its capabilities. Massive budget allocations ensured that Russian defense-industrial complex expanded production to the maximum possible level, while North Korea supplied wagon-loads of artillery shells and Iran delivered ...
Assessing Russia’s Maneuvers in the Middle East Amidst Escalating Tensions
On Friday, February 2, the United States conducted a massive airstrike, targeting terrorist militia bases in Iraq and Syria but reverberating across Russian geopolitical designs. In Russia’s grand strategy, the escalation of tensions in the broader Middle East triggered by the shocking attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel on October ...
Breaking the Russian-Ukrainian Stalemate: Lessons from Military History
Today it is still the case that neither side seems to possess the military capability needed to end the war to its advantage, but there is also no prospect of peace negotiations anytime soon. Ukraine’s summer offensive did not alter the overall state of the war. From the perspective of ...
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