Blog post archive
Displaying 198 blog posts in series Ukraine War
April 2025
Decision Point for Putin is Set Too Close for His Comfort
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Steven Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s key negotiator, met last Friday in what could mark a decisive moment in making or breaking a peace deal on Russia’s war against Ukraine. This conversation lasted about 4.5 hours, but next to nothing has been revealed about its ...
Global Trade War Does Not Diminish Pressure on Russia to End Its War
Russia is not directly affected by the new U.S. trade tariffs. The effects on its economy are profound, while the political effects are open to interpretation.
Putin’s Warpath Goes Through Arctic
Russia’s war against Ukraine is stuck in a rigid deadlock. The prospect of agreeing on a ceasefire, which had appeared within reach a couple of weeks ago, has, however, become distant and blurred.
March 2025
Russia Refuses to Make Meaningful Step on Road to Peace
U.S., European, and Ukrainian peace-making policies are now aligned at a possible breakthrough point, as differences in means and methods transmute into complementarities. This fast evolution starkly contrasts with the immobility of Russia’s position. This resolve, so long as it exists, prohibits any discussion of possible compromises for peace (see Strategic ...
Triumphalism in Moscow About Setback in Peace-Making for Ukraine Could be Short-Lived
Moscow’s mouthpieces competed to celebrate and ridicule the individuals involved in the February 28 talks in Washington, D.C. between Ukraine and the United States. To the surprise of many, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the White House empty-handed after arriving with the expectation of signing a symbolically important minerals deal ...
February 2025
Moscow Changes War Rhetoric but Stays War Course
The whirlwind of U.S.-initiated diplomatic activity in the last two weeks has compelled the Kremlin to alter the tone of its messaging on confrontation with the West and even the substance of its far-reaching propaganda campaign. The cliché of “Anglo-Saxon” hostility, a long-time theme in Moscow’s discourse, has disappeared together ...
Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks
Jubilation in Moscow after the phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on February 12 has given way to contemplations of the consequences and even to confusion caused by the barrage of statements from officials throughout the week (Kremlin.ru, February 12). During the conversation, Putin ...
Trump’s Logic of Deal-Making Versus Putin’s Logic of War-Making
As the Ukraine War approaches the grim mark of three years, it appears both ripe for an armistice and impossible to bring to an end. For US President Donald Trump, this war is a senseless waste of people and resources, which should be stopped immediately. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, ...
January 2025
Conversations on Ending the War in Ukraine Grow Louder and Emptier
The first week of the “Golden Age” of U.S. policy announced by President Donald Trump registered a stream of messages from the White House on the need to bring the war in Ukraine to an end (White House, January 20). The Kremlin duly responded with signals of readiness to discuss ...
Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion
The Russian offensive in Donbas has slowed in the last few weeks to a crawl, and in the Kursk oblast, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to expel the Ukrainian forces remains unfulfilled. This deadlock, in which both sides suffer heavy casualties, could have created a favorable situation for opening peace ...
Russian Counter-Offensive in the International Arena Has Lost Momentum
One of the key goals for 2024 that President Vladimir Putin had apparently set at the end of the second year of the Ukraine war was to execute a sustained foreign policy counter-offensive to reduce Russia’s international isolation to irrelevance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tries to claim success in achieving ...
November 2024
Putin’s ‘Three Escalations’ Affect Prospect of Peace in Ukraine
Russia’s strategy in executing its aggressive war against Ukraine, passing the 1,000-day mark last week, puts the country’s economy, society, and armed forces under enormous pressure that Moscow’s militaristic propaganda cannot quite cover. As Russia’s war in Ukraine passes the 1,000-day mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy has turned to ...
Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil
The US presidential election, which has been dominating the global news, will come to its natural culmination on November 5, even if the outcome remains uncertain for many more days. Even in Russia, where war and inflation are major concerns, official sources report that more than 60 percent of adults ...
October 2024
Putin’s Much Ado About the BRICS Summit
The BRICS summit on October 22–24, held in Kazan, Russia, was met with great fanfare in Russian propaganda, which hailed it for its “epochal” significance. The BRICS summit, held in Kazan, was met with great fanfare in Russian propaganda. Propagandists hailed it for its “epochal” significance. Moscow commentators promoted the ...
No Shortcut to Hard Road to Peace in Ukraine
As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches its 33rd month, no drastic changes are expected on the battlefield. Ukraine has intensified its behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s promotion of his own victory plan, despite little change on the battlefield. Zelenskyy’s proposal emphasizes that only ...
Civil Society Participation in International Criminal Justice
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is in trouble. To commentators and observers of the Court, one crisis seems to lead on to the next, so that the field of international criminal justice has been described as being in ‘perpetual crisis’. Following a brief ‘revitalization’ of the Court due to its ...
The Zelensky 'Victory Plan' That Evaporated
Is the Ukrainian president weakened? Sir Michael Howard, one of the most renowned war historians of all time, often pointed out that wars were lost or won as a result of events that took place far from the front lines. The past weeks have powerfully reminded us of the truth ...
Unwinnable Wars, Risks of Escalation, and the Nuclear Taboo
The announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 11 coincided with a dangerous phase in two long wars — Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine — that are both poised for escalation. This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Hiroshima ...
Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced neither surprising nor radical revisions in Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 (Kremlin.ru, September 25). He committed to revising the government’s vague document back in June. In the ensuing months, many “patriotic” pundits have advocated various drastic changes, from formalizing the “escalate-to-deescalate” proposition to breaking ...
September 2024
Spectre of Escalation Over the Ukraine War
The first striking sentence of the Communist Manifesto issued in 1848 – A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of communism – has long become a historical anecdote. Even the leftist fringe cherishes no illusions about the unity of the proletariat. A different spectre, however, is looming over Europe – the ...
Putin Cannot Escape War in Ukraine Amid Travels to Far East
Russia’s ninth annual Eastern Economic Forum was held last week on September 3–6 in Vladivostok. It was intended to promote Moscow’s commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, but instead exposed the shortcomings of this ambition. The Kremlin is not only demanding the redeployment of all combat-capable Russian ...
Putin Puts Forth Resolute Indifference to Kursk Debacle
The impact of Ukraine’s August 6 offensive operation into Kursk oblast remains an open strategic question following four weeks of increasingly intense and fluid fighting (see EDM, August 14, 15). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first reaction to this incursion was clearly misinformed by intelligence assessments portraying it as just another tactical raid. ...
July 2024
Moscow Seeks to Drive ‘Peace’ Wedge into Trans-Atlantic Unity
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not demonstrated any discernible change over the last few weeks in his maximalist stance on how to end his war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, many other governments and organizations continue to propose ideas and initiatives for how to end this devastating conflict, though not all of ...
Russia Seeks to Maintain Battlefield Initiative on Eve of NATO Summit
The ever-changing battlefield dynamics of Moscow’s war against Ukraine have made it impossible for predictions to be accurately tied to the political calendar. This unpredictability is particularly acute in the lead-up to one of the most critical events of 2024 — the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington ...
May 2024
Russia Attempts New Anti-Peace Offensive
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued reassurances of his readiness to negotiate an end to his war against Ukraine many times over the past 27 months, which Kyiv has duly rejected as attempts to pressure it to capitulate (see EDM, January 29, February 6, 26, April 15). A maneuver executed last week may, however, ...
"Long War" Drives Putin’s Cadre Reshuffling
Russia’s political elite are facing a challenging test as they bear the burdens of the economic strain and societal stresses of Moscow’s war against Ukraine. This upper echelon had grown accustomed to a stable bureaucratic environment and the sweet rewards of rampant corruption. Russian President Vladimir Putin, nevertheless, demands continuing ...
War of Attrition Perturbs Putin’s Elites
Last week was full of shocks for Moscow. The United States finally approved $61 billion of aid to Ukraine, the European Parliament passed a resolution rejecting the legitimacy of Russia’s March presidential elections, and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of bribery. The last ...
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