Blog post archive

Thursday, 9 Jan 2025
Russian Counter-Offensive in the International Arena Has Lost Momentum

One of the key goals for 2024 that President Vladimir Putin had apparently set at the end of the second year of the Ukraine war was to execute a sustained foreign policy counter-offensive to reduce Russia’s international isolation to irrelevance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tries to claim success in achieving ...

Wednesday, 31 Jul 2024
Russian Intrigues in Middle East Surge

On July 24, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was summoned to Moscow for a secret meeting in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the same day that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress. The visit was announced only the following day when al-Assad ...

Thursday, 4 Apr 2024
Terrorism Undercuts Putin’s Political Agenda

The shock from the March 22 terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall is continuing to generate angst and confusion throughout Russian society while failing to inspire unity. The Russian population may have grown accustomed to the perpetual shocks caused by the war in Ukraine, but the people are unprepared for ...

Wednesday, 7 Feb 2024
Assessing Russia’s Maneuvers in the Middle East Amidst Escalating Tensions

On Friday, February 2, the United States conducted a massive airstrike, targeting terrorist militia bases in Iraq and Syria but reverberating across Russian geopolitical designs. In Russia’s grand strategy, the escalation of tensions in the broader Middle East triggered by the shocking attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel on October ...

Tuesday, 14 Nov 2023
Chronic Refugees: A Burden on Poor Countries

We are continually reminded of how wars result in mass human migrations: think only of Palestine, Syria, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Sudan. In general, poor neighbouring countries shoulder most of the burden of housing these refugees, while rich countries do little to take in their share. The result has been ...

Friday, 17 Feb 2023
Governance and Survival after the Earthquake: The Political Complexities of Humanitarian Assistance

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria on 6 February is tragic beyond what we are able to fathom. The World Health Organization’s Europe branch has labelled the 7.8 magnitude earthquake and a secondary 7.6 magnitude aftershock as the region’s “worst natural disaster” in 100 years. By 17 February, there have ...

Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022
Russian Influence Fades in the Middle East

The 2022 World Cup has been dominating global news, and no one is missing the Russian team among the 32 participating nations, unlike, for instance, Italy or Egypt. Neither has Moscow said anything regarding the controversies surrounding this paramount sporting event in Qatar (Novayagazeta,eu, November 25). This absence from a ...

Wednesday, 4 May 2022
Putin's Blood Trail from Syria to the Ukraine: Western Failures in the Face of Power-Play, Propaganda and De-humanization

One of the tragic side-effects of the war in Ukraine is that at long last – and unfortunately only now – the last person in the West may have come to understand what really happened in Syria, especially after Russian intervention. This does not help those Syrians who have been ...

Tuesday, 15 Mar 2022
Will the Russian-Ukrainian War Resonate in Syria?

The predictable and yet shockingly brutal Russian invasion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has in the course of three weeks sent many tremors across the world system. Major stock markets experience strong corrections, oil prices register new highs, importers of wheat and sunflower oil are nervously checking their stocks, ...

Thursday, 3 Mar 2022
Turkey’s Difficult Balancing Act in the Ukraine Crisis

It’s not difficult to imagine Turkey’s President Erdogan watching Putin’s failures in Ukraine with a solid dose of schadenfreude. Putin has been the kingmaker in Syria since 2015 and Erdogan, not one for compromise, has had to negotiate with Putin to secure Turkey’s interests. The most critical of these has ...

Friday, 6 Aug 2021
The Plight of Syrian Refugees

The plight of Syrian refugees is worsening day by day. They face increasing pressure in all of the primary host countries. The route to a safe haven in Europe is closed. Returning to a Syria in ruins, where the conflict remains unresolved, is seen by most refugees as far too ...

Wednesday, 30 Jun 2021
Do Cease-Fires in Syria Work? We Checked the Data.

Our research looks at 10 years of truces in Syria. A missile attack last weekend in northern Syria left a hospital in ruins and further casualties in a residential area. But these types of attacks have become less common in Syria. Although this civil war remains among the most devastating ...

Thursday, 3 Jun 2021
Russia Readying for Compromise on the UN Humanitarian Aid to Syria

The UN Security Council is due to make a decision on a particular and particularly controversial issue pertaining to the humanitarian disaster in Syria by July 10, and Russia positions itself as the key part of the problem and a necessary contributor to a solution. The discord in the UN ...

Sunday, 11 Oct 2020
A Nobel for the WFP: A Non-Political Peace Prize for Humanitarian Multilateralism?

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to the World Food Program for its “efforts to combat hunger, for its contribution to bettering conditions for peace in conflict-affected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and ...

Sunday, 3 Nov 2019
The Time Has Come to Define the Lebanon We Want

Lebanon’s protests have brought the country to a pivotal moment. It’s now paramount we act carefully and with the lessons from the past in mind. This piece originally appeared online in The New Arab. In the week since then the situation has continued to rapidly evolve. We will publish a new ...

Monday, 21 Oct 2019
A New Phase in the Syria Conflict and New Security Challenges

On 9 October 2019, Turkey launched its third invasion in Syria dubbed “Operation Peace Spring”, this time in north-eastern Syria. The previous two operations, “Euphrates Shield” and “Olive Branch” took place in north-western Syria (west of river Euphrates) and established a Turkey-controlled zone between the cities of Jarablus to the ...

Tuesday, 18 Dec 2018
The Clash of Guns and Swords: Game of Thrones and Reality

Are there any similarities between the bloody war in Game of Thrones (GoT) and modern conflicts? The battle fields are certainly quite different, and dragons have very little to do with today’s conflicts (although they may allude to weapons of mass destruction). However, if we look beyond the fighting and ...

Monday, 24 Sep 2018
Four Setbacks and a Tragedy in Russia's Syria Intervention

The destruction of an Il-20M radio-electronic surveillance aircraft with 15 crew members in the late evening of September 17 was not the worst tragedy in the records of the three years long Russian military intervention in Syria but it is perhaps the most difficult one to explain away. It was ...

Monday, 7 May 2018
The Moscow–Washington Hotline Worked – This Time Around

In the war in Syria, the two globally most militarily active superpowers – Russia and the United States – have soldiers actively deployed on opposite sides on the same battlefield. This is the first time this has happened since the end of World War II, and it is a dangerous ...

Friday, 2 Mar 2018
Putin Brags about Missiles and Remains Mum about Mercenaries

The annual presidential address to the parliament is usually a rather dull affair in Russia, but President Putin has certainly managed to make an impression with the speech delivered on March 1, 2018. He elaborated at great length about Russia’s military might, but before describing new weapon systems (some of ...

Friday, 23 Feb 2018
Turkey’s Risky Adventure in Afrin

Turkey’s military incursion into Kurdish-controlled northern Syria risks straining diplomatic ties and exposing Turkey to increased terror threats. The Turkish offensive on Afrin that began on January 20 had long been anticipated. But while the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) may hope this campaign can drum up anti-Kurdish nationalism ...

Tuesday, 23 Jan 2018
Putin's "Victory" in Syria has Unraveled Fast

The civil war in Syria will soon enter into the seventh year, with around 400,000 people dead and over 12 million displaced. Although the so-called Islamic State has been militarily defeated in Raqqa, no one party is in control of the country—and there is hardly much hope that the tragedy ...

Thursday, 2 Mar 2017
Yemen is on the Brink

Most of the world’s attention has recently been directed towards Syria. In the shadow of Syria, the conflict in Yemen has been left to its own devices, and Yemen is now set to experience an even greater humanitarian catastrophe than Syria. In Syria, we witness the beginning of the end ...

Friday, 20 Jan 2017
No-Man’s Land

In the north-eastern corner of Jordan, thousands of Syrians are left stranded. In the north-eastern corner of Jordan, where the country borders both Iraq and Syria, a barrier resembling a mound of earth extends across the desert. Running parallel to this barrier is a second mound of earth, this time ...

Wednesday, 21 Dec 2016
The Moonlanding

“I’ll be the first Palestinian woman to land on the moon,” she states with a wry smile. The world – and space – lies at her feet, as in theory it does for children all over the world. But these particular legs are standing on shaky ground. Her legs are ...

Friday, 4 Nov 2016
To Tame a Hawk

Hillary Clinton is not seeking attention for her views on Syria. And she has her reasons for not doing so. One area that has been more or less devoid of attention is foreign policy We can safely say that the 2016 US election campaign has been one of a kind. ...

Tuesday, 4 Oct 2016
White Helmets in the Dark Night

In the long dark night that is the Syrian nightmare, the White Helmets have become the only ray of light. In an earlier PRIO blog post, Erica Chenoweth observed that “there are really two types of Nobel Peace Prize Laureates – elites (or elite-led institutions) and ordinary people.” This year, ...

Friday, 30 Sep 2016
An Alarm from Aleppo

At dawn on 23 September, Syrian and Russian fighter jets roared over eastern Aleppo, bringing new death and destruction to the city’s besieged inhabitants. The attacks followed several days of relative quiet, but the ensuing days and nights were worse than ever. The chaos makes it difficult to determine exactly ...

Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016
Syria Travellers and Security Threats

Foreign fighters returning from Syria have emerged as a looming security threat in many European countries, so also in Norway. As well as preventive measures against radicalization and mobilization by the Islamic State, there have been calls for the withdrawal of citizenship and deportation of returned foreign fighters. This raises a number of questions: Are Norwegians more secure ...

Thursday, 25 Feb 2016
Ceasefire as a Fig Leaf for Carnage and Confusion

Just a couple of weeks ago, Aleppo was seen as a crucial battlefield in the Syrian civil war and was compared with Sarajevo as a tragedy of intolerable proportions not only by hard-hitting journalists but also by such responsible politicians as Michael Fallon, UK Defence Secretary. Yet presently, this devastated ...