Seeking to enhance the potential of using conflict early warning for early action, PRIO’s Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) team launched its second prediction challenge last year, inviting researchers across the globe to develop models that could predict the incidence and intensity of armed conflict with tangible estimates of uncertainty of the predictions taken into account.
The goal was simple: to bridge the gap between current approaches to conflict forecasting, and the needs of decision-makers and practitioners to contextualise predictions and be notified not only of the most likely outcome, but – perhaps most importantly – of any low yet alarming risks of dire humanitarian crises that may lie ahead.
13 research teams participated in the challenge, totalling no less than 23 unique models by the end of submission period on June 23rd. The results have now been collated by the VIEWS team and released on a data dashboard developed specifically to deliver the results of this year’s challenge in an interactive format.
The VIEWS Prediction Challenge dashboard, as it’s called, is publicly available at https://predcomp.viewsforecasting.org, offering full insight into the participants’ forecasts for the next 12 months – July 2024 to June 2025 – in addition to retrospective forecasts for 2018-2023. Starting from August 2024, when the UCDP records of observed fatalities in July are released, the dashboard will also be updated monthly with new evaluations of the participants’ forecasts.
LEARN MORE
To learn more about the prediction challenge and the submitted models, please consult the joint introduction article (preprint) and the working papers on the submitted models from each of the participating teams, or subscribe to the VIEWS newsletter for monthly updates directly to your inbox.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Prediction Challenge 2023/2024 was made possible with funding from the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs and PREVIEW.
