The Violence and Impact Early Warning System - People in Need (VIEWS-PIN) is an academic-based research project providing an early warning system of need of humanitarian assistance for all months up to 3 years into the future, and for all Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs). It is part of the VIEWS research consortium.
Forecasts of humanitarian need are made publicly available to decision-makers and stakeholders through an interactive dashboard and a website, contributing to allocate resources where they are mostly needed, and improving the relevance, timeliness, and cost-efficiency of forward-looking policies aimed at minimising human sufferings. The project will produce at least 2 policy reports on the expected trends and patterns of humanitarian need, 3 academic publications shedding light on the drivers of need, hundreds of analytics and visual tools to enhance the understanding of the results, and new evaluation metrics to comprehensively assess the predictive performance of the forecasting models.
The project defines need as adverse changes in average income, access to water, healthcare, education, and food, and provide forecasts for all these dimensions, as well as the aggregate number of people in need. The coverage is global in scope, with a focus on Low and Middle Income Countries, and forecasts are released at both the country level and for sub-national locations of around 55x55 kilometers.
VIEWS-PIN utilizes a combination of machine-learning techniques, advanced statistical tools and big data management and curation. The forecasts are grounded in a thorough assessment of the drivers of humanitarian need, with particular attention to armed conflict and climate extremes, as well as their compound effects. VIEWS-PIN delves into analyses of the drivers of humanitarian need, mapping, and visualization, and publishing regular reports on key trends in humanitarian need at the country and sub-national levels.
Over 200 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance worldwide, mostly driven by the adverse consequences of climate extremes and violence. Timely, targeted anticipatory action and cost-effective humanitarian assistance are needed to prevent crises and minimise human sufferings. The success of these policies, in turn, need to rely on accurate and timely foresight of the magnitude of humanitarian crises and the expected adverse changes induced in the affected populations. VIEWS-PIN fulfils this need.
The project contributes to more impactful crisis action, informs earlier and more targeted allocation of resources for increased preparedness, and facilitates anticipatory action and investments where and when they are mostly needed. Decision makers and practitioners around the world can rely on VIEWS-PIN towards preventing and minimizing shocks, and improving human life and wellbeing in the face of humanitarian crises.
The project is conducted at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), in partnership with the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, leading academic institutions for the study of peace and conflict.
VIEWS-PIN is part of VIEWS, an 'umbrella' research project that studies and provides forecasts for the risk of political violence and its societal impacts in each country and sub-national unit, and for every month up to 3 years into the future. VIEWS also publishes forecasts of the number of fatalities related to three types of violence: state-based violence where the use of force involves at least one governmental actor; one-sided violence which includes attacks against civilians, and non-state violence where two non-governmental groups fight each other. In addition, VIEWS sets out to study and provide forecasts for the impacts of political violence on a range of societal dimension: macro- and micro-economic outcomes, health and psychological wellbeing, access to water, migration and displacement, and political institutions. More information on the project can be found at viewsforecasting.org.
- This 2-year research project is funded by CRAF'd Complex Risk Analytics Fund.
