The project goes beyond traditional security objectives and takes an ambitious, encompassing approach to post-conflict reconstruction. This involves formulating a Peace Dividend Matrix to systematically measure progress. This matrix maps positive outcomes from peacekeeping along three dimensions: 1) human development; 2) political inclusion and gender equality; and 3) state capacity as measured by taxation and public finances. These dimensions capture fundamental drivers of long-term development and reflect structural and institutional transformations. By tracing and analyzing change in these dimensions, we can evaluate what peacekeeping policies are more (or less) effective and understand how stronger institutions and development can develop in different post-conflict contexts, including the role of state actors and local organizations.
The project will make three specific contributions: First, it will identify pathways from security to improved outcomes on the peace dividends dimensions and what policies are more or less effective. The research will extend the study of positive unintended consequences from peacekeeping beyond health and education to political and social institutions. Second, the research outputs will facilitate the design of peacekeeping missions to better leverage positive externalities to support the improvement of governance and development. Third, and finally, the project expands the research agenda from the UN to include other international organizations. Whereas the end of the Cold War led to a surge of UN peacekeeping missions, the current “new” Cold War between the permanent five UN Security Council members leaves less scope for UN peacekeeping. As the UN faces increasing challenges in deploying peace operations, its role in peacekeeping is decreasing while we observe an increase in the distribution of labor between organizations, often operating in the same conflict setting. We will therefore study the peace and reconstruction operations, notably the African Union and European Union. The analyses combine comparative analyses of historical data, case studies, and simulations of future scenarios.
