Has Myanmar’s peace process been derailed by the armed forces’ expulsion of Rohingya from northern Rakhine State? Or is there still a chance for peace?
We argue that any federal bargain is implausible as long as Myanmar has two un-coordinated “branches” of government, one civilian and one military. Yet the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) from 2015 does provide a chance for laying building blocks of peace in ceasefire areas, and the 21st Century Panglong process has the potential to become a platform for Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and political parties to develop a federal reform agenda.
