Will Myanmar’s Northern Alliance Join the Peace Process?

As of February 2019, Myanmar’s Northern Alliance (NA) is a key player in the country’s armed conflicts. Prodded by China, the Myanmar government has engaged in informal talks with the NA’s four members, who are part of a broader political alliance: the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC). On 21 December 2018, the Myanmar Army (Tatmadaw) declared a four-month unilateral ceasefire in the areas where three of the four NA armies operate. Yet the army is engaged in a major counter-insurgency operation against the fourth member: the Arakan Army (AA), who carried out a surprise attack against Border Guard Police in Rakhine State on 4 January. On 5 February 2019, Facebook closed down the accounts of the Northern Alliance and its members, calling them “dangerous organizations”. What is the Northern Alliance? Can its members become full participants in Myanmar’s peace process?