The Libya Conflict and its Security Implications for the Broader Region

Libya is fractured. Its civil war is a complex conflict fought out between myriad smaller militias loosely integrated into two main factions. Khalifa Haftar's siege of Tripoli and its UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has at the time of writing gone on for almost a year. After some major gains for Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA), the siege has been stuck in a stalemate with frontlines running along the southern suburbs of the capital. Each side is backed by various regional and extra-regional powers, and the ensuing military stalemate has taken precedence over the democratic transition that many were hoping for after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The civil war was born out of the power vacuum that followed Gaddafi's removal. This report looks at the evolution of the Libyan conflict since 2011 and maps out the various domestic and external – both state and non-state – interests that clash directly or indirectly in Libya. Moreover, it analyses the various security implications that the conflict has for the country itself and the broader region more generally. Lastly, the report comments on the prospects of the conflict and the peace process pursued by the United Nations and other international actors.