Food Insecurity and Social Instability in Light of the Ukraine-Russia War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has far-reaching humanitarian consequences. Beyond the immediate death and destruction occurring in Ukraine, the war also has significant implications for global food insecurity and the potential for food-related unrest. Ukraine is a major global exporter of wheat and sunflower oil, and this trade has been dramatically reduced by Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s ports. Exports of fertilizer from Russia and Belarus have also been affected in the aftermath of the invasion. In this policy brief, we examine the impact of the Ukraine-Russia war on the potential for unrest due to food insecurity. Through identifying which countries are most vulnerable to rising prices of imported wheat, sunflower oil and fertilizer, we pinpoint the likely hotspots for social instability.