Energy Crisis Amidst the Ukraine War: Three Scenarios

The onset of war in Ukraine triggered a deep and quickly evolving energy crisis, the effects of which continue to destabilize major energy markets and deliver painful consequences upon many regions of the Global South. Urgent measures taken by western governments to alleviate the immediate impacts of the crisis have been poorly coordinated and depart from the common goals of the energy transition set out in the Paris Agreement and other documents. In this context, the climate agenda has been reduced to second priority under the pressure of security challenges, and questions about the duration of this shift of priorities can only be answered by comparing alternative scenarios – which we outline in this policy brief.