Balance of war in Ukraine set to shift, not in Russia's favor

Putin’s strategy for prevailing in the long war of attrition is premised entirely on the breakdown of Western support for Ukraine. Every voice advocating for a reduction in funding is highlighted by the Kremlin and amplified by Russian propaganda. Moscow likely takes this approach to hide the reality that the Russian economy is under severe stress and that the military-industrial is operating at maximum capacity. The West, uninhibited by sanctions, can expand its engagement without putting a great burden on its many powerful economies. Each of Putin’s strategic designs for crushing Ukraine has failed, and it is highly probable that, as the war nears its three-year mark, the Kremlin will miscalculate the degree of Western fatigue and discord. Ukrainian resilience and Western determination make a winning combination. Putin’s “echo chamber” makes it difficult to assess these sources of strength accurately, and that is setting himself up for a shocking turn in Russia’s fortunes at home and on the battlefield.