Nothing compares? Investigating the cost of food as a driver of urban unrest

Increasing food prices have implications for basic subsistence, have a strong price visibility and symbolic value, and are characterized by high volatility and inelasticity of demand. Research thus assumes that food price is an important trigger for unrest. Yet, whether food is an especially potent driver for people’s willingness to engage in collective action, or whether it concerns grievances about general inflation, is unknown. Does food have a greater effect on the willingness to participate in unrest? The paper investigates the relative importance of food in mobilization potential by using unique data from a survey experiment in Johannesburg, South Africa. The experiment collects information on how price increases in food, fuel, and electricity affects respondents’ willingness to engage in unrest. The results show a higher willingness to engage in collective action when presented with increasing living expenses, regardless of whether it is food, fuel or electricity, compared to stable prices. We also consider the level of risk exposure to price hikes, and find that those who report going hungry in the last year have a higher willingness to engage in unrest than those who do not. Thus, food access influences the willingness to partake in unrest during price hikes, also for commodities seemingly unrelated to food. This suggests that for those who are most affected by a price hike it is less important what type of commodity it is. The question is whether it introduces further strain on an already hard-stretched budget.