Russia attempts new anti-peace offensive

Putin may yet decide against taking a break in the ground offensive and the bombing campaign, concluding that a permanent domestic mobilization for the long war better guarantees the stability of his rule. Creating an option for a ceasefire, however, may grant him more flexibility in setting a new balance of parochial interests in the Kremlin court and maneuvering across the international arena. He can assume that direct threats boost European unity and transatlantic solidarity but may erode quickly if the confrontation is temporarily eased. Another consideration is the possible impact of a truce on the domestic situation in Ukraine, where the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is perceived as falling apart. Whatever intrigues Putin tries to spin, his aim of destroying Ukraine as an independent European state remains fixed—and is set to be defeated by Ukrainian resilience and Western resolve.