Can high-level diplomacy turn the tide of the Ukraine war?

Popular article

Baev, Pavel K. (2024) Can high-level diplomacy turn the tide of the Ukraine war?, Panorama UIK (1–3). 7 June.

Panorama UIK Opinion

It is indeed only a sequence of victories on the battlefield that can ensure success of the broad international efforts to bring the war to a just and stable end. The summits of June and July are preparing the political ground for this progress, and that is why Moscow is not only engaging in desperate diplomatic counter-maneuvering, but also sustaining the offensive in order to demonstrate that the strategic initiative is still with the Russian forces. This war plan is, however, as flawed as was the initial blitzkrieg strategy aimed at capturing Kyiv and compelling Ukraine to capitulate. The heavy losses in fruitless attacks exhaust the not-so-big Russian battalions, and the combination of overheating and technological degradation of its economy undermine the capacity to sustain the war of attrition. Discussions on the parameters of a peace agreement may appear premature and unrealistic, but they are in fact as essential and timely as were the plans for rebuilding the world order made months before the memorable D-Day.

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