Key messages:
- European states are not aligned in their military spending priorities, and for this reason, simply increasing national defense spending will not automatically translate into higher common EU industrial and operational capacity
- As long as EU and member state priorities remain unaligned, the risks of wasting growing military funds are considerable and should be more widely debated at the political level
- There are four main defense risks emerging from this context: worsened fragmentation of the European defense industrial base; competition between different European companies for components and raw materials; mismatch between operational needs and industrial supply; and challenges to the definition of a common strategic autonomy
- The economic impacts of an increasing militarization of commercial and civilian industry and increased challenges for green transition should also be considered
- Risk mitigation strategies should favor efforts promoting strategic alignment and political convergence rather than simply agreeing on higher national expenditure targets
