Turns in the Long War as Drivers for Arms Control

The prospect of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine being a long war highlights the critical issue of preventing nuclear or conventional escalation that would damage Ukraine and its supporters. Rebuilding arms control will be a key task in this scenario. The risk of nuclear escalation is linked to shifting battle dynamics, necessitating flexible arms control approaches tailored to specific regions, weapon types, and deconflicting mechanisms. Risks can be mitigated by robust arms control frameworks and wider international cooperation, especially in regions like the Black Sea. Such inter-bellum frameworks could also be developed into permanent arms control treaties in a postwar period that followed a decisive Ukrainian victory over Russia.