The orchestrated optimism of the Vladivostok forum cannot hide the fact that only an end to the war in Ukraine could make it possible for Russia to begin rebuilding its eroded position and influence in the Asia-Pacific. At the forum, Putin felt obliged to re-confirm his openness to peace talks, which for him means discussing conditions of Ukraine’s surrender, and only after Kyiv’s troops have retreated from Kursk oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a risky choice when launching the offensive. Still, he succeeded in exposing the falsity of Putin’s posturing of holding the position of strength and controlling the strategic initiative. Now, Zelenskyy needs to convert this success into progress on two crucial tracks: ensuring sustained support from the West and convincing doubters in the Asia-Pacific, including China, that his peace plan is a practical proposition and not just a maneuver of information warfare. It is a tall order to deliver a follow-up to the August surprise, but Ukraine has remarkable reserves of resilience.
Baev, Pavel K. (2024) Putin cannot escape war in Ukraine amid travels to the Far East, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1–2). 9 September.