Putin's 'three escalations' affect prospect of peace in Ukraine

The Kremlin anticipates the Trump administration will attempt to bring its war against Ukraine to an end and is preparing positions for neutralizing US pressure for compromises and working to ensure that any concessions that might be granted come primarily from Kyiv. These efforts, however, do not reflect the real effect of Putin’s reckless climb on the ladder of escalation. Any possible deal that presumes to secure moderate gains and restore stability is now undercut by Russia’s demonstrated desire to subjugate a defiant Ukraine and split the Western coalition. A ceasefire that would depend upon the goodwill of the domination-desiring Russian autocrat involves severe security risks for Europe, as they would fail to deter his next aggressive move driven by the Kremlin’s illusions of superior military might. Ukraine cannot hope to restore its territorial integrity by inflicting a crushing military defeat on Russia, but a sequence of successful defensive and offensive operations, empowered by sustained Western military support, could deny Putin the strategic initiative and disillusion him in his perceived escalation dominance.