Moscow ponders reconfigured Middle East, finding few openings
The cessation of hostilities in the Gulf on 25 June was as surprising for Moscow as Israel’s strike on Iran on 13 June. Russia’s attempts to assess the consequences of the surge of the air war have to take into account apparent analytical miscalcu...
Putin holds firm to war course, conjuring mirage of victory
The fever of diplomatic battles around Russia’s war against Ukraine in the first three weeks of May has broken, leaving few meaningful results.
Russia May be Switching Tactics From Sabotage of Peace Deal to Bargaining
On April 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day ceasefire in his war against Ukraine in the lead-up to the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Second World War (President of Russia, April 28). The ceasefire is due to b...
Global Trade War Does Not Diminish Pressure on Russia to End Its War
Russia is not directly affected by the new U.S. trade tariffs. The effects on its economy are profound, while the political effects are open to interpretation.
No Shortcut to Hard Road to Peace in Ukraine
As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches its 33rd month, no drastic changes are expected on the battlefield. Ukraine has intensified its behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodym...
Mir Mubashir
Farzana Mir
Book Chapter
Trajectories of Post-communist Transformation: Myths and Rival Theories about Change in Eastern Europe and Russia
Book chapter in Vojna in mir: Refleksije dvajsetih let
Report – External Series
Political Mobilization among the Hazara of Afghanistan: 1978-1992
Rapportserien ved Sosiologi, UiO
Report – External Series
ATT Monitor Report 2017
ATT Monitor
The pause in the Ukraine war is not Putin's victory
The tragic battles around Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbas region) have taken a pause, and as civilians try to rebuild a semblance of normal life, leaders are figuring out how to now move forward. In his first 100 days, Ukrain...
Ukraine Takes the War Deep Into Russia
Sun Tzu, the great Chinese military philosopher, was rarely studied in Soviet military academies, but the Ukrainian high command — seeking to “win first and start fighting after” — appears to be taking a page out of his treatise, The Art of War. N...
Putin’s War-Mongering Spectacle Reveals War Fatigue
As the one-year mark of President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine neared, the Russian army failed to score anything resembling even a minor victory to provide the Russian leader with a talking point for his public performances. In ...
Foreign Policy Setbacks Hamper Putin’s Desires for Bali
The G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, scheduled for November 15–16, certainly presents attractive prospects for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who needs to re-assert his place among the world’s most influential leaders. However, he has yet to conf...
Eurasian Summit of Hidden Tensions and Thin Pretensions
Samarkand didn’t go well for President Vladimir Putin. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit hosted by Uzbekistan in this ancient city gathered many leaders of various Eurasian states, from Belarus to Mongolia, but it was the meeting ...
Putin Has Unsheathed His Energy Weapon Too Early — and Too Late
In early September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out his intention to punish Europe for resisting Russia’s assault on the world order and supporting Ukraine louder and clearer than ever before. Speaking at the keynote session of a...
No Sensible End-Game for Russia in the Badly Mismanaged War
Predictions of a decisive offensive in Donbass and speculations about peace talks have gained new intensity in both Russian propaganda and Western commentary last week – and neither makes much sense. Artillery and air strikes on the solid Ukrainia...
Hard Georgian Lessons for Ending the War in Ukraine
Russia’s all-out aggression against Ukraine, which will pass the 18-month mark next week, is indirectly but strongly connected to the Russo-Georgian war of 15 years ago. In the first week of August 2008, Georgian villages in South Ossetia, a separ...
Russia’s Diminished Global Status Exposed in India
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence at the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 9 and 10 was not all that surprising and seemed hardly registered by any of the two dozen world leaders who attended. Putin also missed the previous summit in B...
Assessing Russia’s Maneuvers in the Middle East Amidst Escalating Tensions
On Friday, February 2, the United States conducted a massive airstrike, targeting terrorist militia bases in Iraq and Syria but reverberating across Russian geopolitical designs. In Russia’s grand strategy, the escalation of tensions in the broade...
Russia’s Post-Putin Future Becomes Darker
This year’s Munich Security Conference recently took place on February 16 but was soon overshadowed by other events, which is becoming a tradition for the annual conference. In early February 2022, most high-level participants did not believe a Ru...