Moscow ponders reconfigured Middle East, finding few openings
The cessation of hostilities in the Gulf on 25 June was as surprising for Moscow as Israel’s strike on Iran on 13 June. Russia’s attempts to assess the consequences of the surge of the air war have to take into account apparent analytical miscalcu...
Thursday, 19 Jun 2025
PhD course on Conflict Trends
As part of the NORHED II project Partnership for Peace: Better Higher Education for Resilient Societies, PRIO hosted a PhD-level course Conflict Trends, 3-5 June. Siri Aas Rustad led the course.
The asylum paradox – yes. But what now?
Stating that the asylum system in Europe is dysfunctional, is hardly a novelty. It’s even been described as contributing to what has been referred to as an “asylum paradox.”
How do women ambassadors reshape diplomacy at the UN Security Council?
On the occasion of the International Day of Women in Diplomacy, 24 June.
Commemorating the 25 June 2022 terror attack against Oslo Pride: a chronology
As a political event the June 25 attack is remembered both in the context of domestic terror attacks and in the context of terror attacks against queer communities globally.
PRIO Paper
Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2024
PRIO Paper
Lawyers and the resilience of the liberal international order
In times of political crisis and attacks against the foundations of political liberalism, can we put our trust in lawyers and other legal occupations to fight for our freedoms, when they are under attack?
Russian retribution for daring Ukrainian strike is postponed. Perhaps indefinitely
The scale and character of Russian retaliation in the aftermath of the daring Ukrainian attack on four Russian aviation bases on June 1 have yet to be revealed.
Monday, 9 Jun 2025
New data shows conflict at historic high as U.S. signals retreat from world stage
The world is experiencing a surge in violence not seen since the post-World War II era. 2024 marked a grim new record: the highest number of state-based armed conflicts in over seven decades.
Russia’s maximalist demands undermine peace talks despite mounting domestic strains
The key goal of the most recent round of talks between Russia and Ukraine, held on Monday, June 2, in Istanbul, is supposed to be an exchange of memoranda on the conditions for ending the war.
Putin holds firm to war course, conjuring mirage of victory
The fever of diplomatic battles around Russia’s war against Ukraine in the first three weeks of May has broken, leaving few meaningful results.
Hunger, Displacement, and Occupation in Gaza
Outside Gaza, aid convoys are lined up. Food. Water. Medicine. The trucks are not allowed into Gaza because Israel is using humanitarian aid as a political tool to force Hamas into submission.
National Security and Defense Research: The Imperative of Academic Freedom and Open Debate
What kind of peace and security is to be established, nourished and preserved through the collaborative efforts to support and develop the Norwegian military?
Book Chapter
Women Ambassadors in the UN Security Council: Are They Shaping the Practice of Diplomacy?
Book chapter in Gender and Diplomacy: Critical Junctures, Innovations and Future Research Directions
Journal Article
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
Why Would Humans Do Anything Boring, Difficult or Dangerous in Star Wars? Science Fiction’s Reluctance to Embrace Its Own Technology.
This blog post contains spoilers for the first series in Andor, and other science fiction shows.
The Hype, Delusions and Risks of the Arctic Geopolitics
The surge of political attention to the Arctic may appear counter-intuitive to the experts overtaxed with assessing the consequences of the global trade war, perplexed by the deadlock of the Ukraine War, and frustrated by the deepening indifferenc...
Decision Point for Putin is Set Too Close for His Comfort
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Steven Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s key negotiator, last Friday, in St. Petersburg, likely to buy himself more time before making any concessions. On Sunday, Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian...
Popular Article
Putin's warpath goes through Arctic
Popular article in Eurasia Daily Monitor
Putin’s Warpath Goes Through Arctic
Russia’s war against Ukraine is stuck in a rigid deadlock. The prospect of agreeing on a ceasefire, which had appeared within reach a couple of weeks ago, has, however, become distant and blurred.
There’s a Path Forward for Turkey-Greece Cooperation — but It Requires a Dose of Realism
In the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions are largely the norm rather than the exception. Greece and Turkey, two stable states and NATO allies, enjoy largely peaceful unneighborly relations, despite occasional tension between them.
Wednesday, 26 Feb 2025
New Results from Prediction Challenge That Seeks to Improve Conflict Forecasting
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge invites researchers to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution, fully accounting for uncertainty to improve decision-making and crisis preparedness.
Security Dialogue
Poison: The politics behind pesticides and chemical weapons
Compounds labelled as chemical weapons and pesticides share common active chemical ingredients, which function as nerve agents to humans and insects whether they are considered a form of warfare or a farming staple. Lice: Image from Pixabay Why ar...
Tuesday, 28 Jan 2025
PRIO Director's 2025 Nobel Peace Prize List
The Director of PRIO, Henrik Urdal, announced his list today for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, with Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms topping the list.
Conversations on Ending the War in Ukraine Grow Louder and Emptier
The first week of the “Golden Age” of U.S. policy announced by President Donald Trump registered a stream of messages from the White House on the need to bring the war in Ukraine to an end (White House, January 20). The Kremlin duly responded with...
Policy Brief
Consequences of the Israeli UNRWA Ban
MidEast Policy Brief
Greenland Is Not for Sale
President Donald Trump has provoked strong reactions with his proposition to buy Greenland, not the least because the right to self-determination is a fundamental principle in international law, allowing peoples to freely determine their political...
Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion
The Russian offensive in Donbas has slowed in the last few weeks to a crawl, and in the Kursk oblast, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to expel the Ukrainian forces remains unfulfilled. This deadlock, in which both sides suffer heavy casua...
An Untested Refugee Theory
From late January 2025, the Israeli ban on the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) will come into effect. What does this mean for the rights of the Palestinian refugees, and who will then take responsibility for h...
We Need to Talk About Children Born of War
Every day, children are born in war and armed conflict, in Ukraine, on the Gaza Strip, in South Sudan, in Myanmar and elsewhere. Some of these children might have parents who are enemies, that is, parents who are on opposite sides of the conflict....