Decision Point for Putin is Set Too Close for His Comfort

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Steven Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s key negotiator, met last Friday in what could mark a decisive moment in making or breaking a peace deal on Russia’s war against Ukraine.

This conversation lasted about 4.5 hours, but next to nothing has been revealed about its content and outcome.

This resounding silence indicates Putin’s displeasure with the U.S. pressure and perhaps his reckoning with the need to make a decision on at least a ceasefire.

In the meantime, two Russian Iskander missiles struck the Ukrainian city of Sumy on Palm Sunday, observed as a holiday by many Ukrainians, killing 34 people including two children (Kyiv Independent, April 14). Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed responsibility for the strikes, justifying them as targeted against a meeting of the command staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Seversk operational-tactical group (Telegram/@Ministry of Defense of Russia, April 14).

Russia buying time before Easter

Putin arranged the meeting with Witkoff in St. Petersburg, likely to buy himself more time before making any concessions, as an unnecessary and curtailed session was held on the prospects for building up the Russian Navy (Kommersant, April 12).

The real purpose of holding the talks in St. Petersburg was apparently to create an opportunity for Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s newly-promoted courtier who was also present for the talks in Saudi Arabia, to take Witkoff to the grand choral synagogue on the eve of Pesah, or Passover (seeEDM, February 18;Fontanka.ru, April 11). The setting implied that the Russian leader prepares to celebrate Easter, as is his established habit, after which the preparations for the Victory Day parade would occupy his agenda, which further implied that talks on an armistice could only occur in mid-May after these events occur.

Putin’s procrastination clashed with Trump’s pressure on Russia “to get moving” in ending its “terrible and senseless war” (Nezavisimaya gazeta, March 31;Truth Social/ @realDonaldTrump, April 11). Even if a pause was achieved, it is unlikely to last longer than the few remaining days before Easter (seeEDM, April 8).

Diversion along with procrastination

Diversion is another part of Putin’s tactics, along with procrastination. As a potential diversion from establishing an immediate ceasefire with Ukraine, Dmitriev sought to invent an attractive agenda for bilateral cooperation while visiting Washington, D.C. earlier this month (Izvestiya, April 4). These incentives, including possible joint projects in the Arctic, should have facilitated the talks in Istanbul on easing restrictions in diplomatic relations and also taken the political attention away from the hard deadlock on the Ukrainian track (Kommersant, April 9;RBC, April 10). Some minor achievements have been registered, including the exchange of two convicted criminals in Abu Dhabi, but the lack of progress on the ceasefire issue continues to loom large (Meduza, April 10).

Moscow appears to have assumed that the global trade disruption and market turmoil caused by Trump’s decision to raise (and then postpone) tariffs would reduce the Ukrainian question to irrelevance (The Insider, April 10). Russian “patriotic” pundits have been jeering the end of globalization, while mainstream analysts have focused on the damage done to the trans-Atlantic solidarity (TopWar.ru, April 9;Izvestiya, April 10).

Assessing the impact of the unmitigated economic confrontation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russian analysts tend to presume that Beijing would see Russia as a more important and reliable partner, despite the wishful rapprochement with Washington D.C. (RIAC, April 10). PRC President Xi Jinping, in the meantime, has focused instead on improving ties with Southeast Asian countries with ongoing state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia (Forbes.ru, April 10;RIA-Novosti, April 11).

No U.S. tariffs, but consequences

While U.S. tariffs are not enforced against Russia, the consequences for the latter’s economy are dependent upon the revenues from the export of hydrocarbons and metals, which are expected to severely decline (Re: Russia, April 11). The sharp divergence in recent weeks of a massive increase in budget expenditures and a steep decline in oil prices generates an impossible stress for the state finances (The Moscow Times, April 10). Elvira Nabiullina, the Head of the Central Bank in Russia, warns that economic forecasts tend toward the worst-case scenario (BFM.ru, April 8).

It is by no means certain that Putin wants to hear the bad news from the experienced bureaucrats in his government, but it is certain that he is acutely aware that Trump is capable of drastic economic measures, even against close allies (Rossiiskaya gazeta, April 10). Russia has withstood heavy sanctions pressure, but distortions are accumulating, and a new squeeze of secondary sanctions against Russian oil exports may push the already unbalanced situation into a spiral of crisis (Carnegie Politika, April 7).

Iranian nuclear program

The Kremlin’s one hope for an uptick in oil prices — and at the same time, for a distraction of U.S. attention on securing a peace deal — has been the oscillating crisis around the Iranian nuclear program (The Moscow Times, April 11). Seeking to stay connected with the management of this crisis, Moscow hosted a meeting of Iranian, PRC, and Russian nuclear experts last week as a follow-up to the meeting of deputy foreign ministers in Beijing in mid-March (Vedomosti, April 8).

Putin might have briefed Witkoff on these discussions before the latter headed from St. Petersburg to Oman for the first indirect talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (RBC, April 13). Tehran, having already gained the important concession on limiting the format of talks to its nuclear program and bracketing out all other regional security matters, is apparently keen to rely on the same delaying tactics as Moscow does (Kommersant, April 10).

No battlefield gains

Bargaining for time only makes sense if passing weeks bring tangible advantages, and Russia has not achieved any battlefield gains since the fighting retreat of Ukrainian forces from Kursk oblast in mid-March (The Insider, April 12). Sunday’s attack on Sumy civilians is far from a battlefield gain or possible advantage in negotiations as, according to Trump, “it was terrible… [I]t’s a horrible thing” (Ukrainska Pravda, April 14). Russian jingoist bloggers speculate about a spring offensive, but the volume of casualties in the probing attacks is so high that building strong reserves for a breakthrough is all but impossible (TopWar.ru, April 7;Republic.ru, April 10).

Russian command can count on curtailing of U.S. military aid, but the regular meeting in the Ramstein format last week, chaired by the German and U.K. defense ministers, agreed on a package of deliverables sufficient for keeping Ukraine in fight for many months to come (Izvestiya, April 10;NV.ua, April 11). The support for ending the war in Russian society remains prevalent, even if the opinions on a short ceasefire are more mixed (Levada.ru, April 1).

Postponing ending the war

Putin’s desire to postpone the necessary and broadly popular decision on ending his war against Ukraine is driven not by the expectations of gains but by the fear of the looming question about his responsibility for starting it.

Russia has paid a heavy price for his blunder and Russian citizens will be loath to continue paying for it as the economy would struggle with the deformities of poorly planned mobilization and falling incomes. Kyiv is not likely to gain membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but Europe is almost certain to invest in its rehabilitation as European states consider a strong Ukraine as the best security guarantee for the whole continent’s security against Russian revanchism. Russia cannot win the war and cannot hope to win in the, as of yet, uncertain peace.

• Pavel K Baev is a Research Professor at PRIO
• This text is also published by Eurasia Daily Monitor