Accounting for Genocide: How Many Were Killed in Srebrenica?

The takeover of the UN `safe area' of Srebrenica by Bosnian Serb forces in July 1995 was followed by the killing of a large number of male Bosnian Muslim civilians, in what has been characterized as the worst massacre in Europe since World War II. This article is based on a report submitted as evidence to the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in the case against General Radislav Krsti, who became the first person to be convicted of genocide at this Tribunal. This case also forms part of the genocide charges against Slobodan Miloevi, Radovan Karadi and Ratko Mladi. To our knowledge, this report is unique among genocide studies in its approach, using individual-level data to identify every victim in order to arrive at a highly reliable minimum estimate of the number of people killed. This was possible because of efforts by humanitarian organizations to register people who disappeared during the war as well as the availability of both pre- and post-conflict data on individuals. We conclude that at least 7,475 persons were killed after the fall of Srebrenica. We also present estimates of the probability of being a victim: more than 33%for Muslim men who were enumerated in Srebrenica in 1991.