Was There a Decline in Ethnic Polarization in Macedonia Between 2003 and 2005? Results from a National Panel Analysis

This article reports findings based on analyses of a large national panel study of attitudes towards ethnic relations and conflict in Macedonia from 2003 to 2005. Ethnic Macedonian and Albanian attitudes towards ethnic exclusionism and intolerance are shown in the context of such attitudes among other nationalities in the countries of the Western Balkans. The authors present a structural equation model of the determinants of a simple attitude scale measuring such attitudes in Macedonia, and the changes between 2003 and 2005. The data show marked improvement with regard to attitudes related to insecurity about ethnic violence, especially among Albanians. There was also evidence of improved attitudes about interethnic cooperation. The greatest change was among Albanians, who had very strongly exclusionist attitudes in 2003. At the same time, however, attitudes about ethnic intermarriage became even more negative.