Forecasting

News

Thursday, 3 Apr 2025

L-R: Ilaria Carrozza, Greg Reichberg, Jovana Davidovic, Alexa Timlick, Simon Polichinel von der Maase. Photo: PRIO

Global Gatherings on AI Weapons and Satellite Imagery: PRIO at UN Forums

PRIO’s engagement with issues around the use of AI was in full display last week, when PRIO researchers joined key UN discussions in Geneva on AI-enabled weapons and satellite technology, contributing expertise on security, ethics and strategic policy.

News

Wednesday, 26 Feb 2025

Data and network connection. Illustration: Getty images

New Results from Prediction Challenge That Seeks to Improve Conflict Forecasting

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge invites researchers to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution, fully accounting for uncertainty to improve decision-making and crisis preparedness.

News

Monday, 25 Nov 2024

Syrian refugee cramp. Photo: Getty Images

Armed Conflict’s Hidden Costs: A Multidisciplinary Look at War's Impact on Human Development

A new comprehensive review reveals that the detrimental effects of armed conflict extend far beyond the battlefield, with war reverberating through every aspect of human development.

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Publications
Blog posts

News

Thursday, 3 Apr 2025

Global Gatherings on AI Weapons and Satellite Imagery: PRIO at UN Forums

News

Thursday, 19 Sep 2024

Groundbreaking Conflict Prediction System Receives Special Distinction

The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS), a collaborative project between PRIO and Uppsala University, has been awarded a Special Distinction by the prestigious Kluz Prize for PeaceTech.

Journal article

2024

A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems

Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting

PRIO Blogs

Friday, 3 Feb 2023

Photo: EU/ECHO/Peter Biro / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. EU/ECHO/Peter Biro / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations

New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century. When considering what our ...

News

Wednesday, 26 Feb 2025

New Results from Prediction Challenge That Seeks to Improve Conflict Forecasting

News

Sunday, 18 Aug 2024

Illustration. Photo: Andrew Neel (Unsplash)

PRIO Invites Journalists to Apply for Residence Linked to Groundbreaking Research

PRIO hosts six research projects funded by prestigious grants for Europe’s most groundbreaking research. There is now an opportunity for journalists to spend 3-5 months at the institute and engage with these projects.

Journal article

2023

What is in a number? Some reflections on disaster displacement modelling

Journal article in International Migration

News

Monday, 25 Nov 2024

Armed Conflict’s Hidden Costs: A Multidisciplinary Look at War's Impact on Human Development

A new comprehensive review reveals that the detrimental effects of armed conflict extend far beyond the battlefield, with war reverberating through every aspect of human development.

Journal article

2024

Conceptual mapping of climate-related challenges to human mobility. Illustration: Gilmore et al.

Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change

Journal article in Climate Risk Management

News

Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Forecasting Conflict Intensity: Call for Abstracts

The Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) team is committed to providing humanitarian groups with the earliest possible warnings to support anticipatory action.