PRIO Blogs
Putin Weighs Risks of U.S. Readiness to Move on From Stalled Peace Efforts in Ukraine
The Kremlin has used delays and distractions to gain all the time and concessions available to it before seriously engaging in peace talks, or at least a genuine pause, in its war against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon be comp...
PRIO Blogs
The Hype, Delusions and Risks of the Arctic Geopolitics
The surge of political attention to the Arctic may appear counter-intuitive to the experts overtaxed with assessing the consequences of the global trade war, perplexed by the deadlock of the Ukraine War, and frustrated by the deepening indifferenc...
PRIO Blogs
Global Trade War Does Not Diminish Pressure on Russia to End Its War
Russia is not directly affected by the new U.S. trade tariffs. The effects on its economy are profound, while the political effects are open to interpretation.
PRIO Blogs
Global Trade Wars: All Against All — But Where is Africa?
The trade war, unilaterally launched by Donald Trump on April 1, 2025, will go down in global history as a hostile act against globalization and international rules — rules that were once defended by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Unit...
PRIO Blogs
Putin’s Warpath Goes Through Arctic
Russia’s war against Ukraine is stuck in a rigid deadlock. The prospect of agreeing on a ceasefire, which had appeared within reach a couple of weeks ago, has, however, become distant and blurred.
PRIO Blogs
What Now for Humanitarian Studies?
Humanitarianism has long been in crisis, but since early 2025 the sector has been experiencing an unprecedented organizational, institutional, normative, and political collapse. As scholars active in the broad, inter-, and multidisciplinary field ...
PRIO Blogs
Triumphalism in Moscow About Setback in Peace-Making for Ukraine Could be Short-Lived
Moscow’s mouthpieces competed to celebrate and ridicule the individuals involved in the February 28 talks in Washington, D.C. between Ukraine and the United States. To the surprise of many, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the White Ho...
PRIO Blogs
American Democracy is in Danger, but Not Dead
Trump and his supporters are undermining American democracy, posing a real threat of democratic breakdown. The consequences would be dramatic, extending far beyond the United States. However, there is still a good chance that democracy, in the end...
Wednesday, 26 Feb 2025
New Results from Prediction Challenge That Seeks to Improve Conflict Forecasting
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge invites researchers to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution, fully accounting for uncertainty to improve decision-making and crisis preparedness.
PRIO Blogs
Moscow Changes War Rhetoric but Stays War Course
The whirlwind of U.S.-initiated diplomatic activity in the last two weeks has compelled the Kremlin to alter the tone of its messaging on confrontation with the West and even the substance of its far-reaching propaganda campaign. The cliché of “An...
PRIO Blogs
Contesting the AI-Cybersecurity Nexus: Lessons Learned from the United Kingdom
In an age where so-called artificial intelligence (AI) seems to revolutionise every corner of our lives, it’s no surprise that its intersection with cybersecurity has become a major focus for governments worldwide. Where cybersecurity and AI were ...
PRIO Blogs
Trump’s Logic of Deal-Making Versus Putin’s Logic of War-Making
As the Ukraine War approaches the grim mark of three years, it appears both ripe for an armistice and impossible to bring to an end. For US President Donald Trump, this war is a senseless waste of people and resources, which should be stopped imme...
PRIO Blogs
Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks
Jubilation in Moscow after the phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on February 12 has given way to contemplations of the consequences and even to confusion caused by the barrage of statements...
PRIO Blogs
Trump Vol. 2 Will Impact Global Development
The United States is by far the world’s largest provider of foreign aid, but it is completely unclear whether and how this will continue. Trump speaks of quickly achieving peace but at the same time he threatens neighboring countries. One thing is...
PRIO Blogs
Conversations on Ending the War in Ukraine Grow Louder and Emptier
The first week of the “Golden Age” of U.S. policy announced by President Donald Trump registered a stream of messages from the White House on the need to bring the war in Ukraine to an end (White House, January 20). The Kremlin duly responded with...
PRIO Blogs
Greenland Is Not for Sale
President Donald Trump has provoked strong reactions with his proposition to buy Greenland, not the least because the right to self-determination is a fundamental principle in international law, allowing peoples to freely determine their political...
Journal Article
Forced displacement and utilization of maternal health care services in host communities: micro-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1986–2016
Journal article in Journal of Refugee Studies
PRIO Blogs
The International Criminal Court at Risk of Collapse
As many are by now acutely aware, the International Criminal Court (ICC) relies on state cooperation to investigate and arrest individuals charged with international crimes. This is not new. What is new is the seriousness, complexity, and extent o...
Report – External Series
Navigating US-China Technology Competition: An Indonesia Perspective
Research Report
Policy Brief
The EU and Peace Facilitation Organizations: Peace Multipliers or Cats to Be Herded?
PRIO Policy Brief
PRIO Blogs
Authorship and Involuntary Attribution: How and Why Should We Contest AI Manipulation?
Technology is radically changing the work and role of scholars and the function of academic publishing. Fake and fabricated content (data, facts, arguments, claims, conclusions) undermines the foundations of knowledge in a democratic society. Faki...
PRIO Blogs
Putin’s ‘Three Escalations’ Affect Prospect of Peace in Ukraine
Russia’s strategy in executing its aggressive war against Ukraine, passing the 1,000-day mark last week, puts the country’s economy, society, and armed forces under enormous pressure that Moscow’s militaristic propaganda cannot quite cover. As Rus...
PRIO Blogs
Protection of Civilians in Crisis: Geneva Conventions at 75
With the devastating news from Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan among other wars, we witness a crisis of the international regime for protecting civilians in armed conflict. However, this is not a total collapse but a return to the troubling world that the...
PRIO Blogs
Making Women Combatants Visible: Steps Towards Gender-Responsive Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration
In October the Security Council met for its annual Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Open Debate under the theme of “Women Building Peace in a Changing Environment.” Despite the WPS agenda’s goals for including women in all aspects of security and ...
Popular Article
Protection of Civilians in Crisis: Geneva Conventions at 75
Popular article in Global Policy
PRIO Blogs
Perplexed Vladimir Putin Reckons With Outcome of US Elections
The Kremlin had confidently expected confusion and turmoil following the US presidential election. Instead, a definite outcome and the commitment to a smooth transition of power are set to shape the US political environment for the next couple of ...
PRIO Blogs
Civil Society Participation in International Criminal Justice
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is in trouble. To commentators and observers of the Court, one crisis seems to lead on to the next, so that the field of international criminal justice has been described as being in ‘perpetual crisis’. Follo...
PRIO Blogs
Can We Award a Prize for Peace in a World Full of War?
On Friday 11 October, we will find out the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The announcement will take place against the background of full-scale wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as a record number of other conflicts around the...
PRIO Paper
Cyprus in the EU and EMU: A Retrospect
Occasional Paper Series
PRIO Blogs
Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced neither surprising nor radical revisions in Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 (Kremlin.ru, September 25). He committed to revising the government’s vague document back in June. In the ensuing mont...