ISBN: 978-0-8157-4034-6
Pavel K Baev
PRIO
Read more about this book at www.brookings.edu/book/u-s-taiwan-relations/
A remarkable amount of information is packed into this concise book, including a literature review and appendices containing key US official documents and economic data. The analysis is strictly policy-centric, so an academic reader will miss concepts like ‘Thucydides trap’ or ‘East-Asian peace’ but will be rewarded by sharp expertise. The chapters containing historical background and examination of current developments lay the foundation for the main chapter on charting the future of US-Taiwan relations. The key proposition in this exercise is that the future is not pre-determined by the variable of competition-cooperation but includes multiple options shaped by interplay of fluid trends. Some of these trends, like consolidation of democracy in Taiwan, are more stable, while others, like China’s economic growth, have become less so. One factor that the authors refuse to panic about is the outcome of the 2024 US presidential elections. They assess with due diligence the danger of military conflict but conclude that these risks remain manageable providing the US and Taiwanese deterrence capabilities are progressively bolstered. Greater concerns are centred on China’s campaign of coercion without violence aimed at fostering the feeling in Taiwan that ‘resistance is futile’ (p. 121). This campaign can combine military demonstrations, economic pressure, diplomatic intrigues and disinformation offensives, targeting the partisan fissures in the newly democratic Taiwanese society. The set of recommendations for countering this campaign is elaborate and feasible, building on the broadening support for Taiwan in the US public opinion and among political elites, while perhaps underestimating the value of interactions with allies and partners in the region. The forthcoming elections in Taiwan are set to test this relatively positive perspective.