The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent intensification of international animosity have had a significant negative impact upon international arms control treaties, in particular those that affect Europe. The erosion of these longstanding treaties inhibits the ability of governments to manage relations between Russia, the United States and other European states, and to mitigate the humanitarian consequences of warfare. Despite these setbacks, there have been widespread calls for arms control to play an important role in European security. We examine the prospects for arms control in two scenarios, a Russian military defeat, and a long war between Ukraine and Russia.
The ‘Arms Control In Bello’ project is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Defence. It has produced three publications, one of which maps the state of arms control in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and two which examine prospects for arms control involving Russia and NATO member states under two scenarios.
