I currently research armed conflicts at the sub-national level using quantitative geospatial data, currently leading "CONMIG," investigating the heterogeneous impacts of violence on forced migration through mixed methods. I contribute to the TRUST project, studying refugees' impacts on host communities in the global south.
Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Senior Researcher
Email: andreas@prio.org
Interests and experience
Working Experience
Associate Professor, UiO, 2023 - present.
Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2016 - present.
Associated Researcher, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), 2016 - 2019.
Postdoctoral Fellow, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, 2017.
Ph.D. Candidate, Human Geography, University of Oslo, 2011 - 2016.
Researcher, Centre For The Study of Civil War, PRIO, 2010 - 2016.
Research assistant, Centre For The Study of Civil War, PRIO, 2008 - 2010.
Education
Ph.D. in Human Geography, University of Oslo, Defended November 4, 2016. Title of the Dissertation: "Local Dynamics of Civil War". Download here: 
Tollefsen_PhD_Avhandling.pdf
M.A. in Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Peace Research Institute, Oslo, 2008 - 2010.
B.A. degree in Geography from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2005 - 2008.
Awards
Stuart A. Bremer Graduate Travel Award 2009.
Projects
All projects
May 2023 – Apr 2028
Peace Science Infrastructure
Peace Science Infrastructure
Dec 2021 – Dec 2024
Peace Positive Private Sector Development in Africa (P3A)
Peace Positive Private Sector Development in Africa (P3A)
Jan 2021 –
Forced Migration and Social Unrest
Forced Migration and Social Unrest
Jul 2020 – Dec 2024
TRUST: Attitudinal Impacts of Refugees on Host Communities in the Global South
TRUST: Attitudinal Impacts of Refugees on Host Communities in the Global South
Sep 2017 –
Children in Conflict: Basic Mapping
Children in Conflict: Basic Mapping
Jul 2013 –
Conflict Trends
Conflict Trends
Jan 2022 – May 2022
Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences - Evidence from the Kosovo War
Airstrike-only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences - Evidence from the Kosovo War
Oct 2020 – May 2024
Geographies of Conflict-Induced Migration (CONMIG)
Geographies of Conflict-Induced Migration (CONMIG)
Oct 2020 – Dec 2023
Conflict Cartographer: Conflict expert prediction in Africa
Conflict Cartographer: Conflict expert prediction in Africa
Sep 2020 – Dec 2022
Reducing Barriers for Women in the Norwegian Armed Forces' Peacekeeping Contributions
Reducing Barriers for Women in the Norwegian Armed Forces' Peacekeeping Contributions
Latest publications
All publications
Jonas Vestby et al. (2024)
Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement
Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement
Journal article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Henrikas Bartusevičius et al. (2023)
Russia's attacks on civilians strengthen Ukrainian resistance
Russia's attacks on civilians strengthen Ukrainian resistance
Journal article in PNAS Nexus
Marta Bivand Erdal, Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2023)
Conflict-related determinants of migration
Conflict-related determinants of migration
QuantMig Background Paper
Laila Skramstad, Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Halvard Buhaug (2023)
Migrant Exposure and Individual-Level Trust: First Impressions from a Systematic Literature Review
Migrant Exposure and Individual-Level Trust: First Impressions from a Systematic Literature Review
PRIO Paper
Jonas Vestby, Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Halvard Buhaug (2022)
Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications
Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications
QuantMig Background Paper
John Gerring et al. (2022)
The Deep Roots of Modern Democracy: Geography and the Diffusion of Political Institutions
The Deep Roots of Modern Democracy: Geography and the Diffusion of Political Institutions
Monograph
Chandler Williams (2022)
Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences
Airstrike-Only Military Interventions and Their Civilian Consequences
Master thesis
Lina Eklund et al. (2022)
Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology
Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology
Journal article in Communications Earth & Environment
Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Marta Bivand Erdal (2022)
Staying Rather than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine
Staying Rather than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine
Popular article in PRIO Blogs
Jonas Vestby et al. (2022)
Predicting (de-)Escalation of Sub-National Violence Using Gradient Boosting: Does It Work?
Predicting (de-)Escalation of Sub-National Violence Using Gradient Boosting: Does It Work?
Journal article in International Interactions
Latest news
All news
Tuesday, 9 Jan 2024
New PNAS Study Shows Conflict Aggravates Disaster Displacement
New PNAS Study Shows Conflict Aggravates Disaster Displacement
Study finds that illiberal political rule and armed conflict are linked to higher human displacement in major floods.
Monday, 13 Jun 2022
Fulbright Article Prize 2022 Awarded to Gudrun Østby
Fulbright Article Prize 2022 Awarded to Gudrun Østby
The Fulbright Alumni Association Norway (FAAN) has by scholarly committee awarded Gudrun the Fulbright Article Prize for 2022.
Monday, 13 Dec 2021
Peace Science Infrastructure: PRIO to Head Large New Collaboration
Peace Science Infrastructure: PRIO to Head Large New Collaboration
Friday, we got to know that a large project has been funded by the Research Council of Norway's INFRASTRUKTUR initiative, that aims to build up relevant, up-to-date infrastructure that is accessible to the research community, to various private and public sector user groups, and to the general public.
Friday, 10 Dec 2021
Call for Papers: 2022 IMISCOE Conference
Call for Papers: 2022 IMISCOE Conference
We invite submissions of abstracts for a proposed session at the 19th IMISCOE Annual Conference in Oslo, on migrant-host interactions in the Global South.
Wednesday, 15 Sep 2021
Call for Papers: Geographies of Migration in Conflict Settings
Call for Papers: Geographies of Migration in Conflict Settings
What about conflict drives some people to move, while others stay behind? Proposed session for the Annual Meeting of American Geographers 2022, on the geographies of migration during conflict and the dynamics of migration-decision making in conflict settings.
Thursday, 24 Jun 2021
Peace Positive Private Sector Development in Africa (P3A)
Peace Positive Private Sector Development in Africa (P3A)
The P3A project will advance the understanding of how, and under what conditions, private sector development exacerbates or mitigates conflict in Africa.
Thursday, 4 Mar 2021
Conflict Cartographer Project Opens for Conflict Predictions
Conflict Cartographer Project Opens for Conflict Predictions
Round two of conflict prediction in the Conflict Cartographer project is now open.
Thursday, 25 Feb 2021
Geographical perspectives on migration and borders (Zoom-session)
Geographical perspectives on migration and borders (Zoom-session)
Join the winter seminar in human geography session on geographical perspectives on migration and borders (Thursday 11 March 10.
Friday, 19 Feb 2021
1 of 6 Children Living in Conflict Zones at Risk of Sexual Violence by Armed Groups
1 of 6 Children Living in Conflict Zones at Risk of Sexual Violence by Armed Groups
PRIO has conducted a study for Save the Children estimating the number of children at risk of experiencing wartime sexual violence.
Thursday, 13 Feb 2020
More Than 70 Million 0–5-Year-Olds Have Only Known Conflict, PRIO Research in Save the Children Report Shows
More Than 70 Million 0–5-Year-Olds Have Only Known Conflict, PRIO Research in Save the Children Report Shows
Save the Children has released its 2020 report on children in conflict.
Latest events
Wednesday, 28 Feb 2024 09:00–16:00 UTC+01
Intersecting Pathways - Understanding Migration Decisions, Journeys, and Refugee-Host Interactions
Intersecting Pathways - Understanding Migration Decisions, Journeys, and Refugee-Host Interactions
Tuesday, 27 Feb 2024 10:00–17:00 UTC+01
Crossfire to Crossroads - Understanding Migration Decisions, Journeys, and Refugee-Host Interactions
Crossfire to Crossroads - Understanding Migration Decisions, Journeys, and Refugee-Host Interactions
Thursday, 15 Feb 2024 16:30–19:30 UTC+01
Living in Displacement: Ukrainian Experiences and Stories in Norway since February 2022
Living in Displacement: Ukrainian Experiences and Stories in Norway since February 2022
Tuesday, 21 Nov 2023 08:30–10:00 UTC+01
What Shapes Refugee Journeys?
What Shapes Refugee Journeys?
10–12 Sep 2018
Conflict Trends Course Opens for Policymakers and Practitioners
Conflict Trends Course Opens for Policymakers and Practitioners
Tuesday, 5 Jun 2018 08:15–14:00 UTC+02
Securing Health Care of Hidden Populations: The case of Children Born of War
Securing Health Care of Hidden Populations: The case of Children Born of War
22–23 Sep 2016
Armed Conflict, Maternal- and Child Health, and the Impact of Development Aid in sub-Saharan Africa
Armed Conflict, Maternal- and Child Health, and the Impact of Development Aid in sub-Saharan Africa
Friday, 21 Nov 2014 10:00–13:00 UTC+01
Armed Conflict and Maternal Health
Armed Conflict and Maternal Health
Friday, 18 Jun 2010 09:00–16:00 UTC+02
GROW-Net Workshop
GROW-Net Workshop
